Hostilities declared

As it turns out, it looks like Labour have decided not to wait until the weekend before commencing their internecine hostilities. Several senior party figures have already started briefing viciously against Gordon Brown.

On this morning’s Today programme, Nick Robinson reported that one Cabinet minister had told him, referring to Gordon’s Stalinist tendencies, “Gordon Brown cannot say we now need another five-year tractor plan.”

Another minister, referring to the party’s collapse under the leadership of Michael Foot, said, “We bottled the decision to remove our leader then; will we bottle it again now?”

Poor Harriet Harman was put up this morning to get the ritual post-election kicking from the broadcast media. On BBC TV’s Breakfast she took a pasting from Susanna Reid, but that was scant preparation for the out-and-out mauling she received at the hands of John Humphrys on Today. It will be a long time before she gets over that one.

All change at Crewe

Woke to the news that the Conservatives have won the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, with a thumping majority of over 7,800.

Yesterday, I stopped off in the constituency on the way home and spent a few hours engaged in the political activity known in the trade as “knocking up”. This involves visiting the homes of Conservative pledges who appear not yet to have voted and reminding them to visit the polling station before it closes.

Given that I was bothering people who, in many cases, had only just returned home from work, I had a pretty good reception, with smiles and thumbs-up.

The Labour party were on the streets too. Bizarrely, their activists seemed to be still canvassing, a completely useless exercise at that late stage in the campaign. I came across a group led by the Home Office minister, Liam Byrne, dressed in a smart suit, but with tie removed.

“I see the big hitters are out this evening,” I said as I passed him. He shrugged and smiled.

That is the best part of polling day. For both sides, the war is over. The acrimony has gone. All that there is left to do is to turn out the support.

Drove back through the Cheshire countryside, looking glorious in the light of the setting sun. I was pretty sure we’d won, but the scale of the win remained to be seen.

As it turned out, to use the words of election mastermind Eric Pickles, we took it and we took it big.

There was a swing from Labour to Conservative of 17.6 per cent. Edward Timpson won a formerly safe Labour seat with a majority of 7,860. We had a massive win in what had been Labour heartland.

If the result were replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would have an overall majority of more than 200. In Wales, we’d take no fewer than 18 of the 40 constituencies.

But there’s no point in playing fantasy football. We must learn hard lessons from Crewe and Nantwich. We must refine our tactics still further and ensure that the slick electoral machine we deployed in the constituency is reproduced throughout the country. Our activists, who poured into Crewe from across the UK, will be massively boosted by the result and will be eager to give Labour a bloody nose on their own turf.

For Labour, the defeat is disastrous. Make no mistake, whatever excuses they produce - and there will be many - the result will cause panic and despair. Hundreds of Labour MPs will know that the writing is on the wall for them. And we’re talking about what were thought of as very safe seats, too; on a similar showing nationally, people such as Kevin Brennan in Cardiff West would be in big trouble.

So the internal Labour recriminations, already evident, will turn into all-out warfare. This weekend will see the start of it.

And at the centre of the maelstrom will be Gordon Brown himself. The pressure for him to go will be huge. Constitutionally, he can’t be officially challenged this year; that would have to wait until the party conference in autumn, 2009. But that would also be too late for the party to recover in time for the general election.

This election has utterly changed the dynamics of national politics. We are now playing in a new arena.

We live in fascinating times.

Alkie Ada

The Prime Minister’s fitfully eccentric pronunciation of certain words grows ever more perplexing.

Some weeks ago, in PMQs, Mr Brown made reference to the “Daily Llama”. This was not, it turned out, a periodical dedicated to the interests of breeders of Andean ungulates, but, rather, the spiritual leader of the Tibetan people.

Today, in response to a wordily earnest question about Afghanistan from the Lib Dems’ Nick Clegg, the Prime Minister said:

“I hope that the right hon. Gentleman will agree that what we are doing in Afghanistan is the front line against the Taliban and their ever returning to power. It is a battle against Alkie Ada and those people who want to use Pakistan and Afghanistan to bring Alkie Ada back into power.”

Members scratched their heads in bemusement. Alkie Ada? She sounded rather like a slightly disreputable, serially divorced aunt, the sort who turns up for Christmas and disgraces herself in the presence of the vicar at lunch on Boxing Day. Who was this intemperate dame d’un certain âge, so disturbingly seeking dominion over the bazaars of Peshawar and the fastnesses of the Hindu Kush?

“Alkie Ada”, after a moment’s reflection, turned out to be a dangerous international terrorist organisation, headquartered in the godforsaken caves of Tora Bora.

It’s not the Scottish accent, which is now suppressed sometimes to the point of disappearance, that causes the confusion, but rather the Prime Minister’s unusual approach to foreign words. It’s an idiosyncrasy, similar to the his insistence on referring to the Liberal Democrats as the Liberal Party, which ceased to exist a full twenty years ago.

Sack the strategist

Unbelievably, Labour are already making excuses for losing the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, two days before polling day.

According to the Times, a “senior strategist” has put out the following line:

“After the locals it was right to have a serious inquest and take action because of what the country was telling us. That is why we acted on the 10p tax. But there will be no repeat of the internal soul-searching. Crewe was always going to be tough in midterm and commentators who pretend that we should be expecting to win this seat at this time are being dishonest.”

Hang on a second. Crewe a tough seat? This is Crewe we’re talking about. Crewe, held by Labour through thick and thin, in the teeth of the most enormous Thatcher landslides and any other adversity you may care to mention, in every general election since the war. If Crewe is turning Tory, no matter what the political weather, things must be pretty blooming bad.

A couple of weeks ago, I blogged about the essential lack of defeatism that is the hallmark of most politicians. The will to fight was, I suggested, hard-wired in every politician’s DNA.

But not, it would appear, for this “senior strategist”. He seems to have already given up the ghost and rolled over. What a wuss.

So, a couple of words of friendly advice for Gordon.

First, don’t anticipate the result at Crewe. It shows disrespect for the electorate. Nobody on this side of the political fence has done so. We’re all still fighting.

Second, sack the strategist.

Digitising Gordon

Today sees the launch of the Prime Minister’s latest attempt to reconnect with the public. He has initiated what is described as “an online version of Prime Minister’s Questions” on YouTube.

Gordon was, notoriously, badly stung by David Cameron’s jibe that he was “an analogue prime Minister in a digital age”. The YouTube venture is, it would appear, his attempt to give the lie to Cameron’s taunt and show that he is more than able to tune in and get down with the kids. Oh yes.

Or, to be more accurate, the attempt of Mark Flanagan, former managing director of LBC radio, who is the new head of digital communications at No 10. Under Flanagan, Downing Street has established presences on Twitter and Flickr. The YouTube wheeze would appear to be Flanagan’s latest effort to digitise Gordon.

Unfortunately, Gordon’s first outing on YouTube is less than propitious. The PM looks as uncomfortable and self-conscious as ever, and delivers his 38-second message in a dull, sotto voce monotone.

Gordon’s problem is that Cameron’s description of him is absolutely spot on, which is why it hurt him so badly. He is clearly uncomfortable with new technology, digital or otherwise. Digitising Gordon is a bit like the peculiar innovation of putting Marmite in a squeezy container. It probably works, but everyone wonders what is the point.

The PM’s first YouTube answers are, we are told, to be posted some time around the end of June. I am looking forward to the occasion immensely, if only to see if Gordon begins his broadcast with the words:

“I am speaking to you from the cabinet room at 10 Downing Street.”

McCabe on Mars

An ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World shows the Conservatives 8 points ahead in Crewe and Nantwich, and on course to turn a 7,000 plus Labour majority into a Tory gain by a margin of over 1,000.

This may, of course, be entirely wrong. Opinion polls frequently are. But the poll follows the pattern of other recent ones (indeed, tomorrow’s Sunday Times YouGov poll gives the Conservatives nationally a 20 point lead).

It is absolutely impossible to overstate the importance of the Crewe and Nantwich contest. If Labour hold on, Gordon Brown will have some ammunition with which to keep his detractors at bay. If they lose, then all hell will break out in an already fractious Parliamentary party and Gordon’s personal position will be under further attack.

Labour’s desperation is highlighted by the ludicrous, 70s-style, campaign they are waging in the by-election, seeking to characterise the Conservative candidate as a “Tory toff” - a tactic unlikely to succeed almost anywhere in twenty-first century Britain, but least of all in such a place as Nantwich. It appears to be the brainchild of diminutive Glaswegian hard man, Steve McCabe, MP for Birmingham Hall Green, who has been seconded from the Whips’ office to head up the Labour effort.

Even seasoned Old Labour stagers appear embarrassed by McCabe’s Life on Mars tactics. On Thursday, Frank Dobson, the genial veteran who was the unsuccessful official party candidate for London Mayor in 2008, and who was once kind enough to offer to buy me a coffee in Portcullis House when I discovered that I had forgotten my money, made it reasonably clear on BBC TV News that he considered the class warfare tone struck by the campaign to be a load of risible, juvenile baloney.

What’s the betting that, if Labour do lose Crewe on Thursday night, McCabe will be first in line feel the rough end of the Prime Ministerial tongue, to say nothing of the Prime Ministerial boot?

On the other hand, possibly not. Wee Stevie’s partner is none other than Fiona Gordon, the PM’s political secretary, so his bacon may yet be saved.

To the point

The transcript of the Prime Minister’s press conference has now been published on the 10 Downing Street website, and what a joy it is.

I strongly recommend it for the insight it provides into the workings of the Prime Ministerial mind and its succinct incisiveness.

The following gives a flavour of the PM’s admirably spare and economical use of the English language:

Question:

Were you really as persistently disobedient and impertinent to your predecessor on public sector reform as is suggested by John Prescott and Cherie Blair? And what do you really make of that woman - Mrs Blair?

Prime Minister:

The public sector reforms, many of them were proposed by the Treasury, many of them were pushed forward by the Treasury and many of them are there as a result of the initiatives such as all the Gershon changes that have reduced the number of civil servants by I think nearly 70,000 to make way for other uses for resources. I think that the issue that has been raised in the book is foundation hospitals, the only issue on foundation hospitals - so that none of you start re-writing history - was whether hospitals could run up huge borrowings at a local level. The Treasury obviously was worried about the implications for debt if individual institutions were able to borrow substantial sums of money and someone - because a hospital could not easily close if it had an accident and emergency facility or something like that - had to pick up the bill. And that was the only issue in relation to foundation hospitals. It was a perfectly sensible issue; how do you deal with a situation where an institution that is not actually the Government itself can run up huge borrowings. And of course we reached an understanding on that and I think the result is that we do not have these huge borrowings, that was the only issue.

Clear enough for you?

Huge Misunderstanding

You know the statement Alistair Darling made on Tuesday about income tax?

Well, you thought it was all about avoiding a Labour backbench rebellion that might have resulted in the Government being defeated on the Finance Bill, didn’t you?

I have to admit I certainly did. I even thought it might have had something to do with the Government’s concern about losing the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Well, we were all wrong. How wrong we were. In fact, we were so wrong, we should all e-mail the Prime Minister a fulsome, grovelling, Frank Field apology. I'm going to send mine right now.

You see, the real reason that Alistair made his statement when he did was because he wanted to help people. Help everyone, in fact. He and Gordon had noticed that things are getting a wee bit pricy out there and wanted to do their bit.

This was made clear by the Prime Minister’s official spokesman in his press briefing on Wednesday:

Asked if the Prime Minister regarded yesterday's announcement on tax return as an equivalent to the American tax rebate to help the country through hard times, the PMS replied that the Chancellor had addressed this point in his statement yesterday when he said that as well as providing compensation to those affected by the removal of the 10p band, there would be a family tax cut to provide support this year for families on middle incomes at a time when they faced increased bills, so supporting the economy.

And that really is why it was done. Indeed, the Prime Minister was at pains to reiterate the point when he gave his press conference yesterday. This is how the Times, our premier newspaper of record, reports it today:

Mr Brown, managing smiles and laughs despite a torrid week, rejected the “defeatist” idea that there was little he could do to influence rising oil prices and world commodity trends. “I actually believe there is a great deal you can do. Good economic decisions can help people through difficult times,” he said.

Yet he insisted that the £2.7 billion package announced on Tuesday was not only to help those hit by the 10p rate abolition but was also in line with action taken by other countries, including the United States, to pump money into the economy to help to ward off the recession.

So there you have it. Set out in black and white in the unimpeachable pages of the Thunderer. It was all part of Gordon’s masterplan to save the economy.

And as for the timing, well, it was the right timing. In the US, the measure was announced in January, when it became clear that there was a real threat of recession. But in the UK, it was right to wait a few months, until May; the coincidence of the by-election was just that - a coincidence. You can't rush these things, you know. Which is also why you'll have to wait until September to see any of your money.

Which may also be why the poorest taxpayers won't get all the money they lost when the 10p band went. I'm a bit vague on that point, actually.

Anyway, that clears that up. All a huge misunderstanding.

And I bet you all feel pretty darn ashamed of yourselves, don’t you? I know I do.

Journey Home

Very long and messy day.

Started with breakfast with other Welsh MPs and vice-chancellors of Welsh universities. Very interesting and instructive.

Later, in the afternoon, the Welsh Select Committee took evidence on the Vulnerable Children legislative competence order. The procedure is appallingly Byzantine and serves only to underline what a dog’s breakfast the devolution settlement is. It is slow, ponderous, time-wasting and clunky. Peter Hain lashed it up in an attempt to paper over the internal cracks in the Labour party. It works very badly indeed.

Received BlackBerry e-mails from my PA all through the meeting, reporting on the state of the railways. There were signalling problems at Bletchley, meaning that I might not be able to get home tonight. Turned up at Euston nonetheless and was relieved to find that the Holyhead service was running.

Collapsed in the train with the Evening Standard. The journey started well enough. Then the train manager announced that there was a circuit failure at Nuneaton. The service was being diverted via the Midlands, meaning an extra 50 minutes at least.

As I type, the train is waiting to pull into Stafford. Another miserable journey home, relieved only by the glory of the British countryside, with its green fields, Hereford cattle and hawthorn hedgerows heavy with blossom.

This is the worst bit - indeed, the only bad bit - of being an MP. But, looking out of the window on such an evening, I have to say that even this is pretty good.