An ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World shows the Conservatives 8 points ahead in Crewe and Nantwich, and on course to turn a 7,000 plus Labour majority into a Tory gain by a margin of over 1,000.This may, of course, be entirely wrong. Opinion polls frequently are. But the poll follows the pattern of other recent ones (indeed, tomorrow’s Sunday Times YouGov poll gives the Conservatives nationally a 20 point lead).
It is absolutely impossible to overstate the importance of the Crewe and Nantwich contest. If Labour hold on, Gordon Brown will have some ammunition with which to keep his detractors at bay. If they lose, then all hell will break out in an already fractious Parliamentary party and Gordon’s personal position will be under further attack.
Labour’s desperation is highlighted by the ludicrous, 70s-style, campaign they are waging in the by-election, seeking to characterise the Conservative candidate as a “Tory toff” - a tactic unlikely to succeed almost anywhere in twenty-first century Britain, but least of all in such a place as Nantwich. It appears to be the brainchild of diminutive Glaswegian hard man, Steve McCabe, MP for Birmingham Hall Green, who has been seconded from the Whips’ office to head up the Labour effort.
Even seasoned Old Labour stagers appear embarrassed by McCabe’s Life on Mars tactics. On Thursday, Frank Dobson, the genial veteran who was the unsuccessful official party candidate for London Mayor in 2008, and who was once kind enough to offer to buy me a coffee in Portcullis House when I discovered that I had forgotten my money, made it reasonably clear on BBC TV News that he considered the class warfare tone struck by the campaign to be a load of risible, juvenile baloney.
What’s the betting that, if Labour do lose Crewe on Thursday night, McCabe will be first in line feel the rough end of the Prime Ministerial tongue, to say nothing of the Prime Ministerial boot?
On the other hand, possibly not. Wee Stevie’s partner is none other than Fiona Gordon, the PM’s political secretary, so his bacon may yet be saved.
1 comments:
It's a poor show and an insult to the electorate. Personally, I think we're putting out too much literature - Labour are doing that work for us. We just need to mop up by engaging with people face-to-face. Whilst delivering today I got a very friendly response.
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