Friday, May 09, 2008

Ask not for whom the Sun polls...

Extraordinarily bad news for Labour, if today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is to be believed.

Labour are 26 percentage points behind the Tories; at 23 per cent, their rating is their worst in polling history. Furthermore, the only time the Conservatives have enjoyed a bigger lead was as long ago as 1968. Very dramatic stuff.

But I’ve been around too long to get over-excited about these findings; polls, after all, do ebb and flow. However, one there is one matter of particular significance that emerges from the YouGov figures: incredibly enough, the poll makes it clear that, appalling electoral liability though he is, Gordon Brown is nevertheless the best chance Labour have of regaining the ascendancy.

YouGov asked voters if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if a string of other frontbenchers were leader, instead of Mr Brown. Every single alternative, including Tony Blair, would attract even less support than Gordon. Indeed, with deputy leader Harriet Harman or Ed “Golden” Balls at the helm, Labour’s ratings would be as many as 10 points worse.

The inescapable conclusion, therefore, appears to be that we are going through a political sea-change, the sort that happens every generation or so. The electorate simply doesn’t want Labour at any price; it’s not just Gordon, it’s the whole damn crew.

The Tories may not really be 23 points ahead, but their lead is nevertheless pretty substantial. And, being as dispassionate as possible, it's hard to see how Labour can get themselves out of this hole in the time available to them. They probably need to become reconciled to a sizable spell in opposition before they can stand any chance of getting back in contention.

It really is as bad as that for them. How swiftly political fortunes change.

Tomorrow, Sara and I are off to Crewe and Nantwich, to help in the by-election. It’ll be interesting to talk to people there and get their take on things.

0 comments: