All change at Crewe

Woke to the news that the Conservatives have won the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, with a thumping majority of over 7,800.

Yesterday, I stopped off in the constituency on the way home and spent a few hours engaged in the political activity known in the trade as “knocking up”. This involves visiting the homes of Conservative pledges who appear not yet to have voted and reminding them to visit the polling station before it closes.

Given that I was bothering people who, in many cases, had only just returned home from work, I had a pretty good reception, with smiles and thumbs-up.

The Labour party were on the streets too. Bizarrely, their activists seemed to be still canvassing, a completely useless exercise at that late stage in the campaign. I came across a group led by the Home Office minister, Liam Byrne, dressed in a smart suit, but with tie removed.

“I see the big hitters are out this evening,” I said as I passed him. He shrugged and smiled.

That is the best part of polling day. For both sides, the war is over. The acrimony has gone. All that there is left to do is to turn out the support.

Drove back through the Cheshire countryside, looking glorious in the light of the setting sun. I was pretty sure we’d won, but the scale of the win remained to be seen.

As it turned out, to use the words of election mastermind Eric Pickles, we took it and we took it big.

There was a swing from Labour to Conservative of 17.6 per cent. Edward Timpson won a formerly safe Labour seat with a majority of 7,860. We had a massive win in what had been Labour heartland.

If the result were replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would have an overall majority of more than 200. In Wales, we’d take no fewer than 18 of the 40 constituencies.

But there’s no point in playing fantasy football. We must learn hard lessons from Crewe and Nantwich. We must refine our tactics still further and ensure that the slick electoral machine we deployed in the constituency is reproduced throughout the country. Our activists, who poured into Crewe from across the UK, will be massively boosted by the result and will be eager to give Labour a bloody nose on their own turf.

For Labour, the defeat is disastrous. Make no mistake, whatever excuses they produce - and there will be many - the result will cause panic and despair. Hundreds of Labour MPs will know that the writing is on the wall for them. And we’re talking about what were thought of as very safe seats, too; on a similar showing nationally, people such as Kevin Brennan in Cardiff West would be in big trouble.

So the internal Labour recriminations, already evident, will turn into all-out warfare. This weekend will see the start of it.

And at the centre of the maelstrom will be Gordon Brown himself. The pressure for him to go will be huge. Constitutionally, he can’t be officially challenged this year; that would have to wait until the party conference in autumn, 2009. But that would also be too late for the party to recover in time for the general election.

This election has utterly changed the dynamics of national politics. We are now playing in a new arena.

We live in fascinating times.