A Clunking Budget

I couldn’t let the week pass without commenting on Gordon Brown’s last Budget, which looks to be the dodgiest yet. I say “looks to be” because it always takes days, if not weeks, of analysis of the Red Book before you can tell just how bad any of Gordon’s budgets were. They are so very opaque.

However, what is clear is that, despite the rabbit-out-of-a-hat flourish of the 2p reduction in the basic rate of income tax (not to take effect until next year, mark you), most people will be either no better off or actually worse off as a result of the Budget. Gordon was just shuffling taxes around, not reducing them. This con-trick has already rebounded on him in terms of public disapproval; people are not as stupid as he seems to think, and I anticipate a further fall in his already dire poll ratings.

The abolition of the 10p tax band was a cynical manoeuvre that will positively damage low earners with income of less than £18,000, particularly the single young and older workers below retirement age. Quite why Labour thinks it a good idea to penalise the poorest in the country, I can’t imagine.

All in all, the Budget was particularly bad for Wales. The Chancellor announced that smaller company corporation tax will go up by 3p over the next three years. There will, it is true, be some Byzantine additional capital allowances, but these will be of little help in the labour-intensive service sector, which is where most Welsh companies operate.

Farmers, too, were bashed by the hike on vehicle excise duty – going up to £400 in two years. Nothing illustrates more the fact that Labour is an inherently urban party, with little understanding of, or care for, the countryside, than their notion that the 4x4 is a dispensable, gas-guzzling luxury for the self-indulgent Knightsbridge set. It’s not; it’s a working necessity in rural Wales. Next time Gordon Brown is in Wales (unlikely to be in the near future, I’d guess), he should try driving over a boggy field in Cerrigydrudion in a G-Wiz electric car; that might change his mind.

With the departure of Tony Blair just over the horizon, I look forward to Gordon Brown’s anointment as incumbent of No.10. He of the clunking fist will do the Conservative Party nothing but good. As David Cameron memorably put it in his Budget response, Labour will have a leader with “the tendencies of Stalin and the poll ratings of Michael Foot.”

Mistaken Identity

Astonishing and depressing news today that the Home Office issued 10,000 passports last year to fraudulent applicants. To make matters worse, the Government has admitted that it issued two passports each to two convicted terrorists.

Weekly, it seems that the ineptitude of the Home Office throws up yet another monumental cock-up. John Reid was entirely right when he said that it is not fit for purpose, but, apart from recognising the problem, it is hard to see what he has done to improve the Department since he has been in charge.

The latest debacle also highlights the dangerous folly of the ID card proposals. The Home Office is unable to put in place an efficient means of issuing ordinary passports; how can it possibly hope to establish a secure and reliable system for issuing high-tech, biometric-based ID cards?

Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word

“I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.”

Today’s Independent on Sunday’s front page is emblazoned with a huge picture of a cannabis leaf and the headline “Cannabis: an Apology”. The paper recounts that ten years ago it pressed for the decriminalisation of the drug, leading to a 16,000 strong march to Hyde Park; it describes how its campaign was instrumental in the declassification of the drug in 2004 from Class B to Class C.

Now there is new evidence of the dangers of cannabis. The widely-used strain known as “skunk” is 25 times more dangerous than the type consumed ten years ago. Research to be published in this week’s Lancet suggests that cannabis is more dangerous than LSD or ecstasy. Professor Robin Murray, of the Institute of Psychiatry, says that at least ten per cent of the 250,000 schizophrenics in the UK could have been spared the illness if they had not used cannabis.

The use of cannabis is now a major danger to public health in the UK. The Independent is courageous and right to apologise for its stance a decade ago, although it qualifies the apology somewhat by the headline on a separate article, “Were we out of our minds? No, but then came skunk.” Professor Colin Blakemore, of the Medical Research Council, who supported declassification in 2004, is quoted in the paper as saying, “The link between cannabis and psychosis is quite clear now; it wasn't 10 years ago."

That link may not have been apparent ten years ago, but it was becoming very apparent in 2004, when declassification took place. The aforementioned Professor Murray and three eminent colleagues were so concerned about the growing body of evidence that cannabis causes psychosis that they pleaded with the then Home Secretary, David Blunkett, not to declassify the drug; their pleas were apparently unheeded.

As Professor Blakemore points out in the Independent article, “When discussing drugs you have to have special concern for young people.” That is, of course, the point. The debate about drugs is constantly evolving as scientific and medical evidence develops and the concerns of vulnerable groups should be at the forefront of that debate.

The Independent may well have had a libertarian argument in favour of decriminalisation ten years ago – although I personally would have taken issue with it – but three years ago, when declassification came, evidence from respected medical scientists of the dangers of cannabis use was ignored by the Government. It remains to be seen whether we will receive an apology from that quarter.

Hain Outfoxed

For all you aficionados of the double-hatted Wales / Northern Ireland Secretary, Peter "Aga" Hain, this article in today's Belfast Telegraph by the excellent Mark Hookham (also of the Daily Post) will come as an absolute delight.

Blood on the Carpet

Further to yesterday’s post about Blair’s departure, it seems that Labour’s National Executive Committee is about to agree a timetable for a leadership contest, to start when he falls on his sword after the likely disaster of the mid-term elections.

According to the BBC News website, this means we could have a new Prime Minister by 22 June.

The whole process will take at least seven weeks and will probably be very messy, so late spring should be highly entertaining - and deeply damaging for Labour.

Crowning Achievement

You know you have arrived when David Cornock comments on your hairstyle (by Tommy's of Ruthin, for the record):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/wales/6454687.stm.

Praise from across the Pond

This morning I attended the address given by former US Vice-President turned Oscar winner, Al Gore, to frontbenchers at the impressive new Campaign Centre in Millbank Tower.

Mr Gore was pretty impressive himself. He spoke authoritatively for over an hour on the subject of global warming. If there were any climate change deniers present at the start of his talk, I am pretty certain none remained at its end.

The Vice-President (apparently he retains the honorary title for life) also paid warm tribute to David Cameron for pushing environmental issues to the top of the political agenda. He said, without any perceptible flattery, that the party was poised to take the moral and political lead, showing the way to the rest of the world on this fundamentally important issue.

Coming from a Democrat to a Conservative, that was praise indeed.

Going out with a Whimper

Yesterday’s vote to replace Trident was remarkable for the relative lack of protest that accompanied it. Certainly, there were a few hundred demonstrators grouped in Parliament Square, but they were fairly muted – nothing like the large and noisy crowds present when the Racial and Religious Hatred Bill passed through the Lords and Commons.

Most Members had quite a few letters and e-mails from constituents opposed to replacing Trident – I certainly did – but it wasn’t the deluge we had all expected.

Also surprising was the size of the Labour rebellion, which was much worse than predicted: almost 100, including a sizable number of Welsh MPs, defied their whips.

Tony Blair has now lost almost all authority within his party; he is unquestionably a lame duck and cuts a very sorry, lonely figure in the House. The weekly Prime Minister's Questions slot is notable for the lack of support he receives from his own back benchers, who usually sit in complete silence throughout his performance at the despatch box.

I anticipate his departure fairly soon after what is almost certain to be a disastrous showing for Labour in the English local government, Welsh and Scottish elections on May 3rd.

A Sad Story

I have just received the following letter from a junior doctor. It needs no comment from me.

I speak as a doctor in crisis, along with 8,000 others, who are facing redundancy in August 2007 due to Patricia Hewitt's "Modernising Medical Careers" new recruitment process which commenced a month ago for 33 000 doctors in the UK. This process is spectacularly breaking down as I write this.

Application process took away 2,000 training posts from juniors alone and the online application form was riddled with error, making the selection process for deaneries across the nation sometimes impossible to shortlist- to which end, some have even withdrawn from this "compulsory" scheme. A series of 8 tree-hugging questions with 150 word answers replaced any common sense when it came to qualifications, aptitude, and professionalism in order to assess the candidate. Any idiot could have answered those questions well.

Families are being torn apart as you will only be offered 1 job, in any region (if you get shortlisted from 2500 applicants per 40 posts!). If you don't want the region/ town/ specialty, then you are politely asked to withdraw, i.e. be jobless with the rest of us, despite possible clearing in May.

1000's of us will be marching in our white coats as a means of utter disgust at our treatment, where eventually the patient will suffer. We have put up with low morale, pay cuts, hospital closures, and daily apologies to our patients for the sinking quality of care, calls way beyond duty and did it because we thought we were trying to keep the NHS alive. Now, we too will be forced out of the system. Many talk of emigration, especially those trained in the UK. Many have already gone!

In the UK there are 2.2 docs per 1,000 patients currently, in European countries, this is as much as 6 per 1000. And after creating more medical schools and encouraging overseas doctors, they now slash the posts!!!

Please lend your support by either publishing this article, contacting me on 07973 919 251 or at the very least attending our march which starts at 11 a.m. Saturday March 17th from The Royal College of Physicians in Bloomsbury to The Royal College of Surgeons where there will be speeches.

As far as my career prospects go, after gaining 10A's at GCSE, AAB at A-level, 3 degrees, several professional qualifications, completed audits, taught students, attended ongoing professional development courses/ conferences and worked in some of London's finest hospitals with good references, I am genuinely considering a waitressing job from August as I have absolutely no transferable skills.

Why is no one paying any attention to this?

Panic in the Ranks

Today’s Populus poll in the Times makes good reading for Tories. It puts the Cameron-led Conservatives 11 points ahead of a Labour Party under Gordon Brown. Even more depressingly for Labour, it suggests that dropping the clunking fist and switching to David Miliband would only make matters worse.

The succession of bad polls, now following an established pattern, is starting to cause panic in Labour ranks. It seems that Labour know that whatever they do, whoever they choose as leader, they are on course to lose the next general election.

The growing despair within Labour was exemplified by a leaflet circulating at their Llandudno conference a couple of weeks ago. Put out by a group called Welsh Labour Grassroots (apparently a mainstream organisation whose conference fringe meeting was addressed by Welsh Assembly minister Sue Essex), it railed:

“For four years now, the illegal war of plunder in Iraq, and the lies that justified it, have glowered like a dark cloud over every Labour campaign. The cash-for-honours scandal brings Labour into yet further disrepute. Blair’s unhinged foreign policy, his attacks on the public sector, his very presence in Downing Street, are our biggest vote-losers. He has to go NOW, before he does any more damage.”

Couldn’t have put it better myself.