Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Leaving Rhodri in the Lurch

Peter Hain appeared before the Welsh Select Committee today, to be grilled on the Wales Office’s annual report. He was flanked by two civil servants, only one of whom – Alan Cogbill, the Wales Office’s director – spoke.

Peter looked rather tired and subdued, not by any means his usual combative self.

I asked him about the commitment given by the Labour – Plaid Cymru coalition in the Welsh Assembly to hold a referendum on primary law-making powers at or before the end of the current Assembly term. Since Peter is the gatekeeper to the legislation, will he grant the request for a referendum when it is made?

Peter was very cagey. He said that the capacity of the Assembly to deal with extra powers needed to be tested. One had to be cautious. He would have to be satisfied that the conditions were right for winning the referendum. He pointed out how narrow the majority was in favour of devolution in the first place. In short, he implied, he would have to be pretty sure of victory before he gave the green light.

This is not the first time that Peter has expressed reservations about a referendum, and his reticence underlines the stresses within Labour ranks over the concessions made by Rhodri Morgan to Plaid during the coalition negotiations.

I have no doubt whatever that Peter would be entirely willing to leave Rhodri Morgan in the lurch with his nationalist bedfellows if he thought that a referendum could not be won, or even if he just didn’t want to hold one. That would please Labour MPs such as Don Touhig, who are implacably opposed to further devolution, but would cause fury within the Assembly Labour group.

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