Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Eyes on the Prize

Peter Hain is up to something.

In a startling interview with the Parliamentary Monitor reported today, Peter admits that Labour has lost touch with its grassroots, and hence with the country at large. He predicts that the party will not win against the “resurgent” Conservatives unless it rebuilds “a proper partnership between the leadership, backbench MPs, the membership of the party, the trade unions and the wider society”.

Coming just over a week before crucial elections in Wales, Scotland and the English counties, Peter’s decision to issue such a downbeat analysis of Labour’s predicament and prospects is, on the face of it, astonishing. Some might even call it a gaffe. Certainly, Rhodri Morgan will be seething; only today, Rhodri announced that “Welsh Labour is aiming to form a government based on a mandate from the people of Wales.” Ironically enough, Peter Hain was at his shoulder as he uttered the words.

But it was no gaffe. The fact is that Peter knows that Labour is going to get a good kicking the length and breadth of Britain on 3 May. Today’s CommunicateResearch poll for the Independent puts support for the party at its lowest level since 1983, when it was led by Michael Foot. Peter is a shrewd politician and he has already discounted the 3 May result, much as an investment manager discounts an anticipated base rate increase. He knows that Labour will lose and that Rhodri Morgan won’t be hanging around much longer.

So now Peter is looking beyond the May elections to the deputy leadership contest, which is likely to be in full swing this time next month, and is doing his best to boost his own chances. In fact, he virtually admits as much. In the Monitor interview, after describing the deputy leader’s role as “absolutely critical”, Peter goes on to say, "The reason I am standing is because I believe we have to have real renewal and real partnership between the leadership and the grassroots and we have to have that or we will not win the next general election."

Peter is entirely right, but what he has left unspoken is his knowledge that even if such a “partnership” is formed, Labour is very likely to lose the next general election. He knows that, because he is - to repeat - a shrewd politician. And when Labour loses that election and Gordon Brown steps down, who better than Peter, as his deputy, to put himself forward for the leadership itself?

You have to hand it to Peter: he never takes his eyes off the prize.

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